Energy Services
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs
Workshop group with CPUC seal

 

California is installing large quantities of wind and solar as it sprints towards an ambitious goal of having 50% of electricity sales come from renewable energy by 2026. But there are many risks along the way. Late-summer outages in California in 2020 and prolonged blackouts in Texas in winter of 2021 illustrate the dangers for ratepayers if electricity regulation doesn’t keep pace with the rapid shift towards renewables.

The Public Advocates Office (also known as “Cal Advocates”) at the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) is responsible for making sure ratepayers always receive reliable, affordable electricity — no matter how aggressively the state moves to green its grid. In January, Frank Wolak and Mark Thurber of PESD spent two days at the CPUC in San Francisco with leadership and staff of Cal Advocates exploring ways to protect ratepayers in a high-renewables future.

Frank and Mark conducted a series of game-based simulations in which the Cal Advocates participants put on the hats of generating companies to learn how electricity markets would play out under different regulatory mechanisms for ensuring reliability and affordability with high renewables. Through their own strategic actions as generators, Cal Advocates staff saw how one popular mechanism — capacity payments — left ratepayers vulnerable, while an alternative mechanism based on forward contracting was far better at aligning generator incentives with ratepayer interests.

PESD thanks the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies for the policy engagement funding that helped deliver this valuable interactive exercise to California regulators.

All News button
1
Subtitle

Frank Wolak and Mark Thurber conduct game-based workshop with the California Public Utilities Commission Public Advocates Office

Authors
Mark C. Thurber
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Stanford's Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) is collaborating with the California Public Utilities Commissions (CPUC) on an Impact Lab that tackles an urgent policy question: How do we make sure the lights stay on as the electricity mix climbs towards state targets of 50% renewable energy in 2026 and 60% in 2030? Wind and solar are essential zero-carbon energy sources, but they are only available when the wind blows and the sun shines. Blackouts in Northern California last August were a warning that system reliability is at risk if the state doesn't act quickly to implement policies that ensure backup generation is available when needed.

The existing regulatory instrument for ensuring long-term resource adequacy, capacity payments, is not well-adapted to a high-renewables future. Capacity payments aim to ensure enough "firm capacity" is always available to keep the lights on, but the firm capacity construct is not applicable to wind and solar, which cannot be turned on and increased at the system operator’s discretion. 

The PESD/CPUC Impact Lab has proposed an alternative resource adequacy mechanism that is robust to a world of high and solar generation: auctions of Standardized Fixed-Price Forward Contracts (SFPFCs) that ensure every megawatt-hour of energy consumed in the state is hedged through long-term financial contracts. Unlike capacity payments, the SFPFCs provide a strong financial incentive for generators to meet their commitments to supply reliable energy wherever and whenever it is needed. PESD research suggests this novel policy mechanism can provide enhanced reliability and major cost savings relative to the capacity payment approach.

The CPUC has initiated a stakeholder process to consider possible implementation of this proposal, and PESD is assisting with research, policy outreach, and development of market simulation games that will allow stakeholders to gain hands-on experience with how the SFPFC mechanism would work in a realistic electricity market.

Hero Image
All News button
1
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Recent record-breaking heat waves followed by rolling blackouts in California have sparked renewed discussion about the state’s options to address future power outages. Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Director Frank Wolak spoke to Bloomberg about power market reforms as one option where California could open up its electricity to retail competition.  While pricing would better reflect grid supply and demand, it’s unlikely this option would have backing given today’s political climate.   Read more (may require subscription)

Read More

Windmills
News

Wolak weighs in on California blackouts

cover link Wolak weighs in on California blackouts
Hero Image
All News button
1
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Today, the Sacramento Bee and San Jose Mercury News both quoted Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Director Frank Wolak in their stories about California’s recent blackouts.  In the Sacramento Bee’s article about the California Independent System Operator declaring a temporary ban on “convergency bidding,” Wolak came out in support of the system comprised of power generators and traders saying that it sends the proper price signals to drive supply. The San Jose Mercury News article said that California electricity shortages will be more common during major heat waves due to the state’s shift away from fossil fuels providing more consistent power to cleaner but more intermittent sources such as solar and wind energy.  “We have a much more risky supply of energy now because the sun doesn’t always shine when we want and the wind doesn’t always blow when we want,” said Wolak. “We need more tools to manage that risk. We need more insurance against the supply shortfalls.”

 

Read More

solar station
News

Wolak: Solving California’s Power Crisis

cover link Wolak: Solving California’s Power Crisis
All News button
1
Date Label
Paragraphs

The basic features of an efficient short-term wholesale market design do not need to change to accommodate a significantly larger share of zero marginal cost intermittent renewable energy from wind and solar resources. A large share of controllable zero marginal cost generation does not create any additional market design challenge relative to a market with a large share of controllable positive marginal cost generation. In both instances, generation unit owners must recover their fixed costs from sales of energy, ancillary services, and long-term resource adequacy products.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
Paragraphs

We show that the negative demand shock due to the COVID-19 lock-down has reduced net-demand system demand less the amount of energy produced by intermittent renewables and net imports that must be served by controllable generation units. Introducing additional intermittent renewable generation capacity will also reduce the net-demand, which implies the lock-down can provide insights about how electricity markets will perform with a large share of renewable generation capacity. We find that the lock-down induced demand shock in the Italian electricity market has reduced day-ahead market prices by 23 EUR/MWh (-45%) but re-dispatch cost have increased by 9 EUR/MWh (+103%) per MWh of load, both relative to the average to the same magnitude for the same time period in previous years. Relating the actual re-dispatch cost to a non-COVID-19 re-dispatch cost counter-factual derived from a deep-learning model estimated using pre-COVID-19 data yields an increase of 40%. We argue that the difference between these two re-dispatch cost increases can be attributed to the increased opportunities for suppliers with controllable units to exercise market power in the re-dispatch market in these low net-demand conditions. These results imply that an increased intermittent renewable energy share is likely to increase significantly the costs of maintaining a reliable grid because of the low levels of net-demand.

 

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Journal Articles
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Christoph Graf
Federico Quaglia
Frank Wolak
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

On June 3, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Director Frank Wolak participated as one of three energy experts in a virtual panel discussion evaluating the pros and cons of proposed “reach codes”  banning natural gas in the city of Los Altos, California.  The panel discussion - "Mandating All Electric:  Is Banning Natural Gas Really The Answer?" - was organized by a group of Los Altos residents who believe city residents’ voices need to be considered in government decisions. 

Reach codes are being considered for all new residential and commercial building construction, and all “scrape” remodels in the city.  A reach code is a local building energy code that reaches beyond the state minimum requirements for energy and its use in building design and construction. These codes facilitate local government’s efforts focused on clean air, climate solutions, and renewable energy economics.

Recorded discussion

All News button
1
Date Label
Paragraphs

Small businesses are typically committed to providing a positive customer experience and therefore may exhibit a response to dynamic electricity prices different from residential or industrial customers. We conduct a field experiment to determine the extent to which small businesses respond through re-configuration of typical routines throughout the experiment period versus through adjustments to specific dynamic pricing events. Using a customer-level survey of appliance ownership, we estimate the hourly response patterns of individual appliances to participation in the experiment versus individual dynamic pricing events. Consistent with our re-configuration hypothesis, small businesses primarily curtail electricity usage throughout the experiment period, although we also find a small imprecisely estimated response to dynamic pricing events on top of the re-configuration effect. Appliances not critical to a positive customer experience such as dish dryers, food storage units, lights, electric motors & pumps, and industrial heaters are the major sources of the energy savings from the re-configuration actions of these small businesses.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Jiyong Eom
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
Paragraphs

We report on an economic experiment that compares outcomes in electricity markets subject to carbon-tax and cap-and-trade policies. Under conditions of uncertainty, price-based and quantity-based policy instruments cannot be truly equivalent, so we compared three matched carbon-tax/cap-and-trade pairs with equivalent emissions targets, mean emissions, and mean carbon prices, respectively. Across these matched pairs, the cap-and-trade mechanism produced much higher wholesale electricity prices (38.5% to 52.6% higher) and lower total electricity production (2.5% to 4.0% lower) than the \equivalent" carbon tax, without any lower carbon emissions. Market participants who forecast a lower price of carbon in the cap-and-trade games ran their units more than those who forecast a higher price of carbon, which caused emissions from the dirtiest generating units (Coal and Gas Peakers) to be signicantly higher (15.2% to 33.0%) than in the carbon tax games. These merit order \mistakes" in the cap-and-trade games suggest an important advantage of the carbon tax as policy: namely, that the cost of carbon can treated by rms as a known input to production.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Trevor L. Davis
Trevor L. Davis
Mark C. Thurber
Mark C. Thurber
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
Paragraphs

If regulators and utilities want to avoid future consumer backlash from smart grid investments, they should adopt retail pricing policies best suited to maximizing the consumer benefits from smart grid technologies.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Commentary
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
EnergyBiz
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
Subscribe to Energy Services