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The desire to "reboot" the New Zealand electricity supply industry is understandable, but it is almost certainly not the best course of action. As a participant in many electricity industry restructuring processes around the world, one important lesson that I have learned is that all reforms start with significant unintended defects that can only be eliminated through a rigorous ongoing analysis of market outcomes and targeted regulatory reforms.  

Many features of the current industry are consistent with international best-practice and a number of positive changes have been implemented since I completed my report for the Commerce Commission in 2009.

Continuing these efforts to identify and fix flaws in the existing market is likely to provide greater long-term benefits than undertaking a major restructuring of the industry.

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Publication Type
Commentary
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
New Zealand Herald
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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Last week, Stanford's Board of Trustees announced that the university would not directly invest funds from its endowment in coal mining companies.  Even the strongest advocates of this action acknowledge that it is a symbolic gesture with little direct effect on the coal industry or global greenhouse gas emissions.  But if a university administration wants to take symbolic (or real) action on climate change, is coal investment a wise choice?

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Publication Type
Commentary
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Los Angeles Times, Op-Ed
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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This paper identifies the major political and economic constraints that impact the demandside of electricity industry re-structuring processes. It then describes how these constraints have been addressed and how this has harmed market efficiency and system reliability. Finally, the paper proposes demand-side regulatory interventions to manage these constraints in a manner that limits the harm to wholesale market efficiency.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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This report points out a number of aspects of the existing electricity market design in Colombia that could be contributing to the periods of high short-term prices observed several times since early December of 2008. These issues are classified into four broad categories: (1) system-wide market power issues, (2) local market power issues, (3) market monitoring issues, and (4) broader electricity market issues.

 

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Working Papers
Publication Date
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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This report proposes an ancillary services payment mechanism for the Chilean electricity supply industry. This is accomplished in three steps. The first section presents a set of economic principles for assessing the likely performance of candidate ancillary services payment mechanisms in the context of Chilean electricity supply industry. The second section uses this framework to assess the likely performance of the ancillary services payment mechanism recently proposed by the National Energy Commission (NEC) in its letter Number 715 dated September 21, 2010. The third section formulates an alternative payment mechanism that respects the existing electricity market structures and rules in Chile, but is likely to provide lower cost and more reliable solution than the one proposed by the NEC. An appendix outlines several examples of how the proposed procurement mechanism could be implemented and how potential exercise of market power by a dominant supplier of any ancillary service could be mitigated.

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Working Papers
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Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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In this report we identify the key drivers of observed market outcomes in the Colombian electricity supply industry during the fourth quarter of 2015 and first quarter of 2016, the time period covered by the most recent El Niño Event. We analyze how effective the market rules and market structure of Colombian electricity supply industry are in managing El Niño Events. The performance of the Reliability Payment Mechanism (RPM) is a major focus of this report because of its designation as the primary mechanism for ensuring an adequate supply of energy at a reasonable price during El Niño Events. We find that the RPM creates a number of perverse economic incentives for supplier behavior, particularly if suppliers have a significant ability to exercise unilateral market power, that works against the RPM mechanism ensuring an adequate supply of electricity at a reasonable price during El Niño Events. We identify several features of the RPM that make it extremely challenging even for a modified version of this mechanism to achieve its goal. We propose an alternative mechanism for ensuring an adequate supply of energy at a reasonable price during El Niño Events that should be straightforward to implement under the current market design in Colombia.

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Publication Type
White Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Shaun McRae
Shaun McRae
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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Welcome Remarks: Mike McFaul, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies, Department of Political Science; Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Director, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Moderator: Frank Wolak, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Holbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies in the Department of Economics; Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development

Speaker: Mark Thurber, Research Scholar and Associate Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development; Lecturer in Management, Stanford Graduate School of Business

As of 2018, coal supplied 27% of primary energy and 38% of electricity worldwide. Coal provides millions of jobs and helps fuel economic growth in emerging economies, especially in Asia. It is also responsible for around a million deaths per year from air pollution, and it is a major contributor to global climate change. As economies around the world have screeched to a halt because of COVID-19, coal has taken a hit—and air quality has improved accordingly. Global coal demand dropped 8% in the first quarter of 2020 relative to the same period last year, mainly due to the pandemic’s impact on China, which is far and away the world’s largest consumer of coal. Because of the curtailment of transportation around the world, oil markets are now seeing even more dramatic impacts than coal markets. Dr. Thurber draws on findings of his new book Coal (2019)—and previous edited volumes The Global Coal Market (2015) and Oil and Governance (2012)—to assess whether the reduction in the role of coal and other fossil fuels is likely to be permanent, or whether they will emerge stronger than ever when the pandemic is over.

Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
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(650) 724-9709 (650) 724-1717
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PhD

Mark C. Thurber is Associate Director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) at Stanford University, where he studies and teaches about energy and environmental markets and policy. Dr. Thurber has written and edited books and articles on topics including global fossil fuel markets, climate policy, integration of renewable energy into electricity markets, and provision of energy services to low-income populations.

Dr. Thurber co-edited and contributed to Oil and Governance: State-owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply  (Cambridge University Press, 2012) and The Global Coal Market: Supplying the Major Fuel for Emerging Economies (Cambridge University Press, 2015). He is the author of Coal (Polity Press, 2019) about why coal has thus far remained the preeminent fuel for electricity generation around the world despite its negative impacts on local air quality and the global climate.

Dr. Thurber teaches a course on energy markets and policy at Stanford, in which he runs a game-based simulation of electricity, carbon, and renewable energy markets. With Dr. Frank Wolak, he also conducts game-based workshops for policymakers and regulators. These workshops explore timely policy topics including how to ensure resource adequacy in a world with very high shares of renewable energy generation.

Dr. Thurber has previous experience working in high-tech industry. From 2003-2005, he was an engineering manager at a plant in Guadalajara, México that manufactured hard disk drive heads. He holds a Ph.D. from Stanford University and a B.S.E. from Princeton University.

Associate Director for Research at PESD
Social Science Research Scholar
Mark Thurber Associate Director Speaker Program on Energy and Sustainable Development

Stanford University
Economics Department
579 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6072

(650) 724-1712 (650) 724-1717
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Holbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies in Economics
Senior Fellow, by courtesy, at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
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MS, PhD

Frank A. Wolak is a Professor in the Department of Economics at Stanford University. His fields of specialization are Industrial Organization and Econometric Theory. His recent work studies methods for introducing competition into infrastructure industries -- telecommunications, electricity, water delivery and postal delivery services -- and on assessing the impacts of these competition policies on consumer and producer welfare. He is the Chairman of the Market Surveillance Committee of the California Independent System Operator for electricity supply industry in California. He is a visiting scholar at University of California Energy Institute and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Professor Wolak received his Ph.D. and M.S. from Harvard University and his B.A. from Rice University.

Director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Frank Wolak Director Moderator Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Seminars
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This paper identifies the key features of successful electricity market designs that are particularly relevant to the experience of low-income countries. Important features include: (1) the match between the short-term market used to dispatch generation units and the physical operation of the electricity network, (2) effective regulatory and market mechanisms to ensure long-term generation resource adequacy, (3) appropriate mechanisms to mitigate local market power, and (4) mechanisms to allow the active involvement of final demand in a short-term market. The paper provides a recommended baseline market design that reflects the experience of the past 25 years
with electricity restructuring processes. It then suggests a simplified version of this market design ideally suited to the proposed East and Western Sub-Sahara Africa regional wholesale market that is likely to realise a substantial amount of the economic benefits from forming a regional market with minimal implementation cost and regulatory burden. Recommendations are also provided for modifying the Southern African Power Pool to increase the economic benefits realised from its formation. How this market design supports the cost-effective integration of renewables is discussed and future enhancements are proposed that support the integration of a greater share
of intermittent renewables. The paper closes with proposed directions for future research in the area of electricity market design in developing countries.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Energy and Economic Growth
Authors
Goran Strbac
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
Authors
Mark C. Thurber
Mark Thurber
News Type
News
Date
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Director Frank Wolak and Associate Director Mark Thurber conducted a workshop on December 3-4 in Brasília, at the offices of Brazil's electricity regulator ANEEL. Regulatory staff used PESD's energy market game to explore what it would mean for the country to move from a cost-based to a bid-based electricity market. Brazil's electricity supply is dominated by hydroelectric power, and a shift to a bid-based market could help the country manage variable hydro output. At the same time, regulators have to make sure the incentives of participants in a bid-based market are set so they align with desired social outcomes. By playing the roles of generating companies in the energy market game, regulators at ANEEL gained a deeper understanding of what these incentives would be under different market configurations -- and specifically, the workshop examined the relative strengths and weaknesses of capacity markets and forward contracts as mechanisms for ensuring resource adequacy in a high-renewables world.

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News
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On November 2 at the University of Hawaii, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Director Frank Wolak gave a special seminar "How Should the Public Utilities Commission Regulate Hawaiian Electric Company for Better Integration of Renewable Energy?" He summarized inefficiencies in Hawaii's electricity system and advocates a "cost based" market in which long-term competitive contracts for power would be used in conjunction with a regulated optimization model that would set real-time prices for buying and selling of electricity and grid services.  

Read more (includes links to video of Professor Wolak's talk and slides)

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