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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber was a panelist at the 2019 Energy Security Workshop in Washington, D.C., where he spoke about why LNG (liquefied natural gas) struggles to compete with coal. The event took place on May 29th and was jointly hosted by the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
 
The competitive disadvantage for LNG is twofold. First, LNG is almost always more expensive than coal. Second, the LNG value chain is more difficult to stitch together. The high cost of LNG infrastructure -- which includes liquefaction plants, LNG tankers, and regasification facilities at the receiving end -- means it will only be built if there is a creditworthy end-use customer willing to pay high prices for gas over a long period of time. But potential customers, for their part, are unlikely to build out gas-using applications until they are certain that gas will reliably be available. This value chain coordination problem is especially severe in countries with limited existing infrastructure for gas transportation and use.

The net result, Thurber concluded, is that LNG will struggle to gain ground against coal, especially for use in the power sector, until countries more explicitly factor environmental factors (where gas has a significant advantage over coal) into their energy markets. (Thurber discusses these and other challenges in replacing coal in his new book, Coal, which is available at https://www.amazon.com/Coal-Resources-Mark-C-Thurber/dp/1509514015)
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber speaks about the competition between LNG (liquefied natural gas) and coal at the Energy Security Workshop in Washington, D.C. on May 29, 2019.
National Bureau of Asian Research
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By making available the almost unlimited energy stored in prehistoric plant matter, coal enabled the industrial age – and it still does. Coal today generates more electricity worldwide than any other energy source, helping to drive economic growth in major emerging markets. And yet, continued reliance on this ancient rock carries a high price in smog and greenhouse gases.

We use coal because it is cheap: cheap to scrape from the ground, cheap to move, cheap to burn in power plants with inadequate environmental controls. In this book, Mark Thurber explains how coal producers, users, financiers, and technology exporters drive this supply chain, while fragmented environmental movements battle for full incorporation of environmental costs into the global calculus of coal. Delving into the politics of energy versus the environment at local, national, and international levels, Thurber paints a vivid picture of the multi-faceted challenges associated with continued coal production and use in the twenty-first century.

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In no other developed country is the role of coal in the energy mix more hotly debated than in Germany. The country has been a leader in renewable energy development, but it also continues to mine and burn substantial quantities of coal, which has thus far blunted its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Germany hopes to phase out all coal use by 2038, though this target is made more challenging by its concurrent effort to phase out nuclear energy.


Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber marked the European launch of his new book COAL with talks at two German universities. On April 8, Dr. Thurber joined a panel of distinguished experts in a public seminar at EWI (Institute of Energy Economics) at the University of Cologne, where the topic was the possibility of phasing out coal in Germany and elsewhere. On April 9, at the University of Mannheim, Thurber was the speaker for the first joint seminar hosted by ZEW and the Mannheim Institute for Sustainable Energy Studies. Before we can move beyond coal, Thurber told these audiences, we first need to understand and address the enduring sources of coal's appeal, including its low cost (at least when full environmental costs are not taken into account) and perceived value for energy security and reliability (whether this perception is accurate or not). 

thurber mannheim coal talk Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber introduces his new book "Coal" and participates in a seminar hosted by ZEW and the Mannheim Institute fo Sustainable Energy Studies on April 9, 2019.

PESD Associate Director Mark Thurber introduces his new book "Coal" and participates in a seminar hosted by ZEW and the Mannheim Institute for Sustainable Energy Studies on April 9, 2019.
Photo credit: Julia Glashauser, ZEW

 

 

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Associate Director Mark Thurber speaks at a public seminar at EWI (Institute of Energy Economics) at the University of Cologne on April 8, 2019.
Hanna Decker, Institute of Energy Economics (EWI), University of Cologne
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Coal has been the world's fastest-growing energy source in absolute terms for over a decade. Coal also emits more CO2 than any other fossil fuel and contributes to serious air pollution problems in many regions of the world. If we hope to satisfy the demand for affordable energy in emerging economies while protecting the environment, we need to develop a keen understanding of the market that supplies coal. This book offers an in-depth analysis of the key producers and consumers that will most influence coal production, transport, and use in the future. By exploring how countries such as China, India, Indonesia, Australia, and South Africa have developed their respective coal industries -- and how these industries link together through the international coal trade -- experts shed light on how the global coal market may evolve, and the economic and environmental implications. This book is the most comprehensive treatment of these topics to date and will appeal to a wide readership, including scholars and practitioners working on energy economics and policy.

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Coal is the leading energy-related cause of climate change and creates serious local air pollution; it also remains, for now, an essential energy source for many growing economies. PESD's new volume studies key coal producing and exporting countries--China, India, Indonesia, Australia, South Africa, and the United States--for insights into how coal production, transport, and consumption will evolve in the future, and what this may mean for the environment.

More publication info can be accessed at this link.

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We compare the cost of generating electricity with coal and wind in Chile’s Central Interconnected System (SIC). Our estimates include the cost of marginal damages caused by coal plant emissions.

On average, we estimate that the levelized cost of coal, including externalities, is $84/MWh. It is efficient to abate emissions of air pollutants (SOx, NOx and PM2.5) but not of CO2. Then the cost wrought by environmental externalities equals $23/MWh, or 27% of total cost. Depending on the price of coal, the levelized cost of coal may vary between $72 and $99/MWh.

The levelized cost of wind is $144/MWh with capacity factors of 24%. This cost includes the cost of backup capacity to maintain acceptable loss of load probability (LOLP), which equals $13/MWh or 9% of total cost. The levelized cost of wind varies between $107/MWh with capacity factors of 35% to $217/MWh with capacity factors of 15%.

We conclude that wind is competitive only when it achieves capacity factors around 35% and coal prices are very high. So far the average annual capacity factor achieved by existing wind farms in Chile has been less than 20%, which suggests why wind has developed only slowly.

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