Energy

This image is having trouble loading!FSI researchers examine the role of energy sources from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) investigates how the production and consumption of energy affect human welfare and environmental quality. Professors assess natural gas and coal markets, as well as the smart energy grid and how to create effective climate policy in an imperfect world. This includes how state-owned enterprises – like oil companies – affect energy markets around the world. Regulatory barriers are examined for understanding obstacles to lowering carbon in energy services. Realistic cap and trade policies in California are studied, as is the creation of a giant coal market in China.

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Private investment in electricity generation (so called "independent power producers" or IPPs) in developing countries grew dramatically during the 1990s, only to decline equally dramatically in the wake of the Asian financial crisis and other troubles in the late 1990s. The Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University undertook a detailed review of the IPP experience in developing countries to identify the principal factors explaining the wide variation in outcomes for IPP investors and hosts. Erik Woodhouse

presented lessons for the next wave in private investment in electricity generation at "International Political Risk Management: Meeting the Needs of the Present, Anticipating the Challenges of the Future," the fifth installment of an annual symposium sponsored by the World Bank's Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency and Georgetown University's

School of Foreign Service.

Read his general report on Political Economy of International Infrastructure Contracting, Lessons from the IPP Experience and a more detailed analysis of his case selection in a following report titled IPP Study Case Selection and Project Outcomes: An Additional Note.

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The South African government is introducing a poverty-reduction policy that will supply households with a monthly 50 kWh free basic electricity (FBE) subsidy. We show that FBE distorts the energy choices of poor households by encouraging them to cook with electricity, whereas alternatives such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) can deliver a similar cooking service at a much lower cost to society. An alternative energy scheme, such as providing households with clean energy credits equivalent in value to the FBE's cost, could deliver additional energy services worth at least 6% of total household welfare (and probably much more) at no additional public cost; those benefits are so large that they would cover the entire cost of LPG fuel needed to implement the scheme. The analysis is extremely sensitive to the coincidence of electric cooking with peak power demand on the South African grid and to assumptions regarding how South Africa will meet its looming shortfall in peak power capacity. One danger of FBE is that actual peak coincidence and the costs of supplying peak power could be much less favorable than we assume, and such uncertainties expose the South African power system to potentially very high costs of service.

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Energy Policy
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David G. Victor
Rebecca J. Elias
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At the third annual World Forum on Energy Regulation in Washington D.C., David Victor presented PESD's work on electricity reform, including a study that will culminate next month in a book printed by Cambridge University Press titled, "The Political Economy of Power Sector Reform: Experience in Five Major Developing Countries."

Slides from the presentation are available at the World Forum on Energy Regulation III page.

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The World Forum on Energy Regulation and Investment III will build upon the themes and key findings discussed during the 1st and 2nd Forums in 2000 and 2003. The 3rd World Forum will discuss recent developments in the energy industry, new trends in energy regulation, and selected sectoral and regional issues. The major themes of the conference will include economic regulation, environmental issues, regulation across international borders & regional market development, and regulatory independence along with other contempory issues in the field.

Washington, D.C.

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National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency, a report by the Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force on Energy, concludes that the “lack of sustained attention to energy issues is undercutting U.S. foreign policy and U.S. national security.” The report goes on to examine how America’s dependence on imported oil—which currently comprises 60 percent of consumption— increasingly puts it into competition with other energy importers, notably the rapidly growing economies of China and India.

The task force was chaired jointly by James R. Schlesinger, a former secretary of defense and secretary of energy, and John Deutch, former director of Central Intelligence and undersecretary of energy, and drew from industry, academia, government, and NGOs. PESD Director David Victor directed the task force and FSI senior fellow by courtesy James Sweeney, director of Stanford’s new Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, served as a member.

The task force unanimously concluded that incentives are needed to slow and eventually reverse the growth in petroleum consumption, particularly in the transportation sector, but was unable to agree on which specific incentives—such as gasoline tax-funded energy technology R&D, more stringent and broadly applied Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFE) standards, and a cap-and-trade permit system for gasoline—would most effectively achieve this result.

The task force report included additional recommendations regarding the supply and consumption of energy including the following:

  • Encourage oil supply from all sources
  • Promote better management and governance of oil revenues
  • Remove the protectionist tariff on imported ethanol
  • Increase the efficiency of oil and gas consumption in the United States and elsewhere
  • Switch from oil-derived products to alternatives such as biofuels
  • Make the oil and gas infrastructure more efficient and secure
  • Increase investment in energy technology R&D
  • Promote the proper functioning and efficiency of energy markets
  • Revitalize international institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA)

The report stressed that the U.S. government must reorganize to integrate energy issues with foreign policy to address the threats to national security created by energy dependence. The task force offered a number of recommendations to better promote energy issues in foreign policy deliberations as follows:

  • Establish an energy security directorate at the National Security Council to lead an interagency process to influence the discussion and thinking of the NSC principals
  • Fully inform and engage the secretary of energy on all foreign policy matters with an important energy aspect
  • Include energy security issues in the terms of reference of all planning studies at the NSC, Defense, State, and the intelligence community

The task force restricted its inquiry to the challenges of managing U.S. and global dependence on imported oil and gas and did not address other important energy security issues such as nuclear proliferation and global warming.

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Council on Foreign Relations
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David G. Victor
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0876093659
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During 2004-06, the Program on Energy & Sustainable Development undertook a study of the experience of independent power producers ("IPPs") in developing countries. As part of the study, the Program sponsored a series of country studies. These papers detail the basic contours of the IPP experience in each country and discuss the country factors identified in the research protocol. Additionally, each paper presents the universe of greenfield IPPs in the country, identifies the significant characteristics across which these projects vary, and selects a small number for individual examination.

This paper summarizes the experiences of the countries and projects that were part of the IPP study. Additionally, the paper provides a concise statement of project outcomes and a brief statement of the rationale underlying the analysis of each project. In doing so, the paper aims to gather in one place the disparate outcomes that are discussed in a long series of working papers, thereby providing a transparent and accessible document that will facilitate further study and critique of the original coding for the study, as well as of the analysis of projects and countries.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #59
Authors
Erik Woodhouse
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Nuclear energy is undergoing a renaissance driven by two very loosely coupled needs; the first for much more energy to support economic growth worldwide, and the second to mitigate global warming driven by the emission of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel. A new generation of power reactors has been developed that are safer, easier to operate, and purported to have lower capital costs. This, coupled with rising costs of fossil fuels and concerns about environmental pollution from fossil fuel power plants, has lead to an increase in orders for new plants, mainly from Asia, but beginning to impact North America and Europe as well.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #58
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South Africa's current policy of providing 50kWh of free electricity has increased peak power usage and increased pressures on the country's already strained grid. This article in Energy Policy conducts an analysis of the economics of providing subsidized power to the poor and concludes providing liquified petroleum gas (LPG) or energy vouchers in place of free electricity would be more economically sound policies.

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Authors
Mark H. Hayes
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Dirctor David Victor and Research Fellow Mark Hayes engaged with a team of researchers from the US, Germany, Brazil, and Argentina to discuss the development of Atlantic Basin gas markets. The seminar is expected to provide a foundation for a new study on the role of LNG imports for Brazil centered at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ).

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