Agriculture
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Climate change is a global phenomenon, but the institutions needed to implement effective policy reside mainly with national governments. This mismatch explains why serious efforts to control emissions of greenhouse gases, such as markets for emission credits, are fragmented across national and regional lines. Climate policy is emerging from the bottom up rather than through globally orchestrated treaties such as the Kyoto Protocol. The authors of this Policy Forum state that fuller efforts to control emissions will require serious engagement of the United States and developing countries, as well as viable schemes for integrating the many fragmented policies that are arising as governments grapple with the climate challenge.

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Journal Articles
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Science
Authors
David G. Victor
David Victor
Joshua C. House
Joshua House
Sarah Joy
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When addressing an externality such as air pollution, regulators can control policy inputs (e.g., pollution taxes and technology standards) or outputs (e.g., emission caps). Economists are familiar with this debate, known broadly as "prices vs. quantities," but analysts of international environmental agreements have rarely focused sustained attention to such questions. Using an inventory of all international air pollution agreements, we document the historical patterns in instrument choice. Those agreements that require little effort beyond the status quo are usually codified in terms of effort, but agreements that require substantial actions by the parties nearly always deploy a cap on emission quantities as the central regulatory instrument.

We suggest that this concentration of experience with emission caps and paucity of serious efforts to coordinate policy inputs may explain why the architects of international environmental agreements appear to believe that emission caps work best. We illustrate what's at stake with the example of international efforts to control the emissions that cause global climate change. We also show that the conventional history of the agreement that is most symbolic of the superiority of emission caps - the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer - has wrongly overlooked a little-known provision that operates akin to a "price" instrument.

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Journal Articles
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Global Environmental Politics
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David G. Victor
David G. Victor
Lesley A. Coben

This meeting will focus on the intersection of two crucial challenges for the organization of energy infrastructures in the developing world. First, for nearly two decades most major developing countries have struggled to introduce market forces in their electric power systems. In every case, that effort has proceeded more slowly than reformers originally hoped; the outcomes have been hybrids that are far from the efficiency and organization of the "ideal" textbook model for a market-based power system. Second, growing concern about global climate change has put the spotlight on the need to build an international regulatory regime that includes strong incentives for key developing countries to control their emissions of greenhouse gases. In most of those countries, the power sector is the largest single source of emissions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol included mechanisms that would reward developing nations that cut emissions, but so far those systems have functioned far short of their imagined potential. A growing chorus of analysts and policy makers are expressing dissatisfaction with those existing mechanisms and clamoring for alternatives.

This meeting will offer diagnoses of what has gone wrong and what opportunities have nonetheless emerged. It will focus on practical solutions and look at the prospects for different technologies to meet growing demand for power while minimizing the ecological footprint of power generation. It will engage scholars who are studying the industrial organization of the electric power sector (and other infrastructures) in developing countries as well as those who study the effectiveness of international legal regimes. It will engage practitioners, including regulators and energy policy makers. Our aims are not only to focus on new theories that are emerging to explain the organization of the power sector and the design of meaningful international institutions, but also to identify practical implications for investors, regulators, and policy makers.

Presentations will include recent results from the research of Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development. We will present the main findings from a comprehensive study of power market reform in five developing countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa). We will also show the results from a detailed analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions from two key states in India and three provinces in China--a study conducted jointly with the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad. In addition, we will present new conclusions from ongoing work that focuses on strategies for engaging developing countries in the global climate regime. Among the topics considered will be the prospects for accelerating the introduction of natural gas into electric power systems--especially those in China and India where the present domination of coal leads to relatively high emissions.

Oksenberg Conference Room

Workshops
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Climate change is one of the most complex issues facing policy-makers today. Controlling the emissions that cause global warming will require societies to incur costs now while uncertain benefits accrue in the distant future. These conditions make it difficult to create succesful policy, yet the longer we wait the more greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere. Even as a consensus grows that something must be done, there is no agreement on the best course of action.

This book takes a fresh look at the issue. It offers three contrasting perspectives, each cast as a presidential speech. One emphasizes the ability of modern, wealthy societies to adapt to the changing climate. A second speech urges reengagement with the Kyoto Protocol while demanding reforms that would make Kyoto more effective. A third speech urges unilateral action that would create a market for low-carbon emission technologies from the "bottom up," in contrast with top-down international treaties such as Kyoto.

A memorandum to the president explains the multidimensional nature of this critical issue and an extensive appendix includes scientific reports, government speeches, legislative proposals, and further readings.

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Books
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The Council on Foreign Relations
Authors
David G. Victor
David G. Victor
Number
0-87609-343-8
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This workshop was held as part of an ongoing study by IRADe and PESD to extend a general equilibrium model of the Indian economy to determine the impact of energy and agricultural policies on agricultural prices and production.

New Dehli, INDIA

Workshops
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A new currency is emerging in world markets. Unlike the dollars, ruros and yen that trade for tangible goods and human services, money exchanges hands for pollution - particularly emissions of carbon dioxide, which are caused by burning fossil fuels and are the leading cause of global climate change. Carbon credits, as they are called, are poised to transform the world energy system and thus the world economy.

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Policy Briefs
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Harvard International Review
Authors
David G. Victor
David G. Victor
Joshua C. House
Joshua C. House
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Council on Foreign Relations
New York

School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA

(858) 534-3254
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Professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies and Director of the School’s new Laboratory on International Law and Regulation
dvictoronline2.jpg
David G. Victor Director Moderator Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Christine Todd Whitman Former Administrator Speaker Environmental Protections Agency
Conferences
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In India, in the last few years, the installed capacity of the Captive Power Plants (CPPs) has grown at a faster rate compared to the utilities. This study examines the factors responsible for the growth of the CPPs. For this purpose the case study of the CPPs of Gujarat is undertaken. In 2002, Gujarat had 2.44 GW installed capacity of captive power plants, which represent almost 22% of the total installed capacity. The factors which caused the CPPs in Gujarat grow at a faster rate compared to the utilities are unreliable power supply by the utilities, poor quality of power, higher industrial tariffs, multiple benefits like cogeneration of steam and electricity and lower internal transaction costs for running the CPPs. Due to these varied reasons the CPPs are not a homogeneous group of plants, but are categorized into various segments. These are back-up type CPPs, CPPs for reducing production cost, CPPs for multiple benefits, and CPPs for quality power.

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Working Papers
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #22
Authors
P.R. Shukla
Debashish Biswas
Tirthankar Nag
Amee Yajnik
Thomas C. Heller
Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
David G. Victor
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The study traces the pattern of development of the electricity sector in India through a case study of the state of Andhra Pradesh. The main objective of the study is to assess the impact of reforms on the electricity generation industry at the state level. The state is selected as a unit of study to bring out the regional variances that may not be captured at a more aggregate or country level study. The study finds that there has been a steady improvement in the efficiency of generation from coal and gas. However, generation from clean sources like hydro has been declining. This changing generation mix has led to a steady increase in emission intensities. The carbon intensities so obtained is used for construction of a baseline for the state. The study reports an increase in the baseline intensity and explores the causes for such an increase.

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Working Papers
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #20
Authors
P.R. Shukla
Debashish Biswas
Tirthankar Nag
Amee Yajnik
Thomas C. Heller
Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
David G. Victor
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