Natural Gas in the Energy Futures of China and India
The role of natural gas in Chinese and Indian economies is of critical import both domestically and for global energy and environmental issues. The competition between coal and natural gas in these two markets has tremendous implications for local air pollution and for climate change. Rising demand for imported gas in China and India will also shape the LNG market in the Pacific Basin and could lead to the construction of major international pipeline projects to monetize gas supplies in Russia and the Middle East.
PESD has partnered with leading regional research centers in both China and India to construct detailed assessments of the key drivers for future gas demand in both countries. Papers are available on requests and presentations for download below.
Bechtel Conference Center
Natural Gas and Energy Futures of India and China
The Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) is concluding a major study aimed at understanding the future role for natural gas in the rapidly growing economies of China and India. On June 4-5, 2007 PESD will convene a meeting at Stanford to present the results of the study and engage with participants from industry and academia on the implications of this work for global energy markets.
PESD has partnered with leading regional research centers in both China and India to construct detailed assessments of the key drivers for future gas demand in both countries. At the June meeting PESD and its research collaborators will share results from the natural gas study and explore the study's broader implications on China and India's role in the future world energy market. Meeting participants will include representatives from government, industry, academia, and non-government organizations from the United States, China, India, Europe, and others.
Panels at the meeting with focus primarily on the implications of the study on larger questions of energy and global geopolitics, including:
§ Competitiveness of natural gas vis a vis coal in the power sector
§ Geopolitical implications of major supply projects
§ Regulatory reform and pricing
§ Implications for CO2 and climate change
Bechtel Conference Center
India Nuclear Deal, the: Implications for Global Climate Change
The debate over the India nuclear deal has been too one-dimensional. Nearly all commentary has focused on whether this proposal would undermine efforts to contain the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Dissent along these lines has been based on a series of largely overblown claims. And the singular focus on proliferation has allowed the debate to lose sight of other ways that this deal is in the interests of the United States and India alike.
Chief among those other reasons is environmental. The fuller use of commercial nuclear power, if done to exacting standards of safety and protection against proliferation, can play an important role as part of a larger strategy to slow the growth in emissions of the gases that cause global warming. That's because nuclear power emits essentially no carbon dioxide (CO2), the most prevalent of these so-called "greenhouse gases." While this benefit is hardly the chief reason for initiating this deal, with time it will become one of the main benefits from the arrangement. The nuclear deal probably will lead India to emit substantially less CO2 than it would if the country were not able to build such a large commercial nuclear fleet. The annual reductions by the year 2020 alone will be on the scale of all of the European Union's efforts to meet its Kyoto Protocol commitments. In addition, if this arrangement is successful it will offer a model framework for a more effective way to engage developing countries in the global effort to manage the problem of climate change. No arrangement to manage climate change can be adequately successful without these countries' participation; to date the existing schemes for encouraging these countries to make an effort have failed; a better approach is urgently needed.
Greenhouse Gas Implications in Large Scale Infrastructure Investments in Developing Countries: Examples from China and India
Engaging developing countries is essential to creating meaningful international regimes to address climate change. We assert that this engagement requires developed countries to broker greenhouse gas emissions abatement plans that accommodate developing countries' energy and development goals. Here we explore two deals: the first to replace coal-fired electricity capacity with natural gas in China, and the second to develop India's nuclear power program. Our analysis indicates that these energy infrastructure investments have the potential to bring about substantial CO2 emissions reductions, and underscore the need for further, more robust analysis of these and similar deals.
Energy Security
"Energy security" is an elastic concept. However, it offers the prospect of linking "hard security" issues, such as territorial protection and supply of vital fuels, in mutually reinforcing ways, with "soft security" issues, such as protection of the environment generally and specifically the limitation of the emissions that lead to global climate change. Such linkages, which could engage a large number of countries and diverse interests, make energy security a good prospect for early action by the L20. Moreover, security of energy supply is once again high on the agenda of most governments because of the current high prices for energy, notably oil. Political action is needed not only because consumers demand it, but also because a large and growing fraction of the world oil supply is under direct control of governments who make supply decisions on the basis of political factors.
Oksenberg Conference Room