Climate change

Dr. Nadejda Victor
Sr. Associate
Technology & Management Services, Inc.
U.S. Department of Energy
National Energy Technology Laboratory
PO Box 10940, MS 922-178C
Pittsburgh, PA 15236-0940

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NVictor.jpg PhD

Nadejda Makarova Victor is a Research Fellow at the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University. Her current research efforts focus on the political and economic implications of the shift to natural gas, the role of Russia in world oil and gas markets, and analysis of the different technologies of H2 production, storage and transportation. In addition, Dr. Victor is involved with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) study on Energy and Sustainable Development evaluation. She is also consulting at IIASA, where she focuses on economic development indicators and the long-lasting debate over SRES emissions scenarios.

Previously, Dr. Victor was a Research Associate in the Economics Department at Yale University under Prof. William Nordhaus, where she developed a new spatially referenced economic database. At the same time she was involved in research at the Program for the Human Environment at Rockefeller University. There she analyzed the technical changes bearing on the environment, rates and patterns of technical change in the information and computer industries, and R&D in the energy sector.

Before she moved to the U.S. in 1998, Dr. Victor was a Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. Her IIASA research included analysis of the long-term development of economic & energy systems, energy modeling at regional and global scales, scenarios of infrastructure financing, trade in energy carriers and environmental impacts. She had extensive collaboration with international organizations, including the World Energy Council (WEC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). She holds a Ph.D. and a B.A. in Economics from Moscow State University.

Research Fellow
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A new currency is emerging in world markets. Unlike the dollars, ruros and yen that trade for tangible goods and human services, money exchanges hands for pollution - particularly emissions of carbon dioxide, which are caused by burning fossil fuels and are the leading cause of global climate change. Carbon credits, as they are called, are poised to transform the world energy system and thus the world economy.

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Publication Type
Policy Briefs
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Harvard International Review
Authors
David G. Victor
Joshua C. House
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Council on Foreign Relations
New York

School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA

(858) 534-3254
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Professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies and Director of the School’s new Laboratory on International Law and Regulation
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David G. Victor Director Moderator Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Christine Todd Whitman Former Administrator Speaker Environmental Protections Agency
Conferences
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In India, in the last few years, the installed capacity of the Captive Power Plants (CPPs) has grown at a faster rate compared to the utilities. This study examines the factors responsible for the growth of the CPPs. For this purpose the case study of the CPPs of Gujarat is undertaken. In 2002, Gujarat had 2.44 GW installed capacity of captive power plants, which represent almost 22% of the total installed capacity. The factors which caused the CPPs in Gujarat grow at a faster rate compared to the utilities are unreliable power supply by the utilities, poor quality of power, higher industrial tariffs, multiple benefits like cogeneration of steam and electricity and lower internal transaction costs for running the CPPs. Due to these varied reasons the CPPs are not a homogeneous group of plants, but are categorized into various segments. These are back-up type CPPs, CPPs for reducing production cost, CPPs for multiple benefits, and CPPs for quality power.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #22
Authors
Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
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The study traces the pattern of development of the electricity sector in India through a case study of the state of Andhra Pradesh. The main objective of the study is to assess the impact of reforms on the electricity generation industry at the state level. The state is selected as a unit of study to bring out the regional variances that may not be captured at a more aggregate or country level study. The study finds that there has been a steady improvement in the efficiency of generation from coal and gas. However, generation from clean sources like hydro has been declining. This changing generation mix has led to a steady increase in emission intensities. The carbon intensities so obtained is used for construction of a baseline for the state. The study reports an increase in the baseline intensity and explores the causes for such an increase.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #20
Authors
Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
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In recent years, the professional punditry has lofted hydrogen into the firmament of technological wonders. A "hydrogen revolution" is now the most often touted remedy to threats to energy security and the specter of climate change and other environmental harms caused by burning fossil fuels the old fashioned way-combustion. Even as a few doubters question the economics and wisdom of this revolution, today's stewards of conventional wisdom question not whether the hydrogen revolution will occur but, rather, the exact timing and sequence of events what will propel modern society to that shining hydrogenous city on the hill.

It is not the price of the energy carrier that will be the main factor in the hydrogen revolution because the cost of creating hydrogen is already in the noise of all the major energy carriers. Rather, the key question is what will make users switch from today's carriers-refined petroleum and electricity-to something new? The incumbents are locked in to the current technological suite, and lock-in effects can be powerful deterrents to new competitors. We address this question-the prospects for technological change by users-from three perspectives. First, we examine the rates of change that are typically observed in technological systems. There has been much ambiguity in the discussion of a hydrogen revolution about how rapidly the revolution could unfold. That ambiguity, in turn, has led to wildly unrealistic expectations and perhaps also implausible research and development strategies. Second, we examine the responses by competitors-notably petroleum and electricity-to a new entrant that tries to steal their market. Past technological transformations have seen ugly replies by the incumbent. Will those replies be fatal to the upstart hydrogen? Third, we examine the crucial role of niche markets. New technologies rarely arise de novo in the mass market. Rather, they are improved and tailored in niche markets, from which they gain a foothold for broader diffusion. What are the possible niche markets for hydrogen, and how might those markets be constructed and protected?

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Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
The Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #17
Authors
David G. Victor
Thomas C. Heller
Nadejda M. Victor

School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA

(858) 534-3254
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Professor at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies and Director of the School’s new Laboratory on International Law and Regulation
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