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In 1992 Cabot LNG, a relatively small Boston-based LNG importer and owner of the Everett LNG receiving terminal just north of Boston, approached the government of Trinidad and Tobago about developing a new LNG export project. Although three attempts had been made previously to develop LNG in Trinidad, nothing had come of them and the government had largely concentrated on attracting intensive gas-based industries to the country. The industries had come but had not greatly prospered. Cabot's approach came soon after the government had decided to liberalize its economic policy; new sources of revenue were badly needed. A memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed by Amoco and British Gas (both had significant gas prospects in Trinidad) with Cabot, and the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago (NGC) to promote an LNG export project, and they launched a feasibility study in 1993. Atlantic LNG, the joint venture company eventually set up to own and run the project, was formed in 1995. Sales contracts were signed with Cabot and with Enagas of Spain in 1995 for a total of 3 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG. Construction started in 1996. The first cargo, bound for Boston, was loaded at the end of April 1999. Design work and sales negotiations for a two-train expansion with a further 6.8 mtpa capacity (Trains 2 and 3) were started in early 1999 and construction started in 2000. Train 2 started up in August 2002 and Train 3 in May 2003. Train 4 is scheduled to begin operations in early 2006, while Train 5 is still looking for approval. The development has been rapid by the standards of LNG projects and judged a success for all parties involved.

This paper sets out to explore why the venture was so successful, what projects were competing and why they experienced different, often relatively less favourable fates. The question of competing projects in this case is quite complex and indeed the outcomes of competing projects appear different for different stakeholders: the buyers of LNG, the government of Trinidad and Tobago, and the project promoters.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #30
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This paper explores the reasons why Turkmenistan has found it so difficult to market its natural gas. It looks at the relative roles played by geopolitical factors, the economics of transport and sale of gas, and how these affected the routes Turkmenistan currently uses, as well as the projects that were put on hold.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #28
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Discussions of trade in natural gas in South America's Southern Cone (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) began as early as the 1950s. But it was not until 1972 that the first international gas pipeline in the region, linking Bolivia and Argentina, was built. It was twenty years later before significant gas pipeline projects integrating Chile and Argentina were proposed, followed by one large project connecting Bolivia and Brazil.

This paper examines three historical cases to understand why there was a 25 year lag between the first international pipeline project and the others, and to uncover key factors that determine why particular pipeline projects were built while similar proposed pipelines languished.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #29
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In the early 1990s the giant Soviet enterprise of Gazprom began work on a new project to export gas across Belarus to Poland and Germany. Close examination of this project offers crucial insights into the potential for Russia's future gas exports because it was the first (and so far only) large new Russian gas pipeline project constructed after the dissolution of the CMEA system and the Soviet Union.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #26
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David G. Victor
Nadejda M. Victor
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A snapshot of the central Mediterranean region starting in the 1970's provides an ideal case for the analysis of decision making in cross-border natural gas transport projects. During this period the massive size of Algeria's gas reserves were well known and Sonatrach, Algeria's state-owned oil and gas company, actively sought to monetize this gas through exports. Across the Mediterranean, both Italy and Spain were seeking to expand natural gas consumption. Projects to import gas from Algeria via pipeline or by ship were proposed, studied, and discussed at the highest levels of government and in state-owned energy companies.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #27
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Mark H. Hayes
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The Arun natural gas project in Northern Sumatra has been perceived as the most lucrative LNG operation in the twentieth century. This paper analyzes the issues involved in the transmission of that gas to potential buyers and why Japan became Arun's only foreign market in its first two decades.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #25
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Starting in the late 1980s many nations began to reform their electric power markets away from state-dominated systems to those with a greater role for market forces. In developing countries, especially, these reforms have proved challenging. Successful reform requires a complex set of institutions and complementary reforms, such as in public finance and corporate governance. State-dominated systems typically create their own powerful constituencies that block or redirect the reform process. In an earlier detailed study of reform in five key developing countries, the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) found that the result of these pressures, in most cases, is a “hybrid” outcome—an electric power system that is partly reformed and partly dominated by the state 2. Almost always the first step in hybrid reform is the encouragement of private investors to build independent power projects (IPPs)—generators that are hooked to the main power system and, typically, supply electricity according to long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs).

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #23
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David G. Victor
Thomas C. Heller
Joshua C. House
Pei Yee Woo
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In India, in the last few years, the installed capacity of the Captive Power Plants (CPPs) has grown at a faster rate compared to the utilities. This study examines the factors responsible for the growth of the CPPs. For this purpose the case study of the CPPs of Gujarat is undertaken. In 2002, Gujarat had 2.44 GW installed capacity of captive power plants, which represent almost 22% of the total installed capacity. The factors which caused the CPPs in Gujarat grow at a faster rate compared to the utilities are unreliable power supply by the utilities, poor quality of power, higher industrial tariffs, multiple benefits like cogeneration of steam and electricity and lower internal transaction costs for running the CPPs. Due to these varied reasons the CPPs are not a homogeneous group of plants, but are categorized into various segments. These are back-up type CPPs, CPPs for reducing production cost, CPPs for multiple benefits, and CPPs for quality power.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #22
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Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
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The study examines the impact of the power sector reforms on the electricity generation industry at the state level in India through a case study of the state of Gujarat. The state has been selected as a unit of study to bring out the regional variances that are not captured at a more aggregate or country level study. The study finds that the reforms have led to the emergence of various ownership structures with associated changes in fuel mix and technology. There has been a steady improvement in the efficiency of generation with reduction in carbon intensities. The carbon intensities so obtained are then used for construction of a baseline for the state, which is then projected up to the year 2010. The study reports a considerable decline in the baseline, which is expected to touch 0.18 Kg per kWh in 2010.. With the projected growth in the share of imported coal and natural gas, the dominance of domestic coal based generation is projected to decline and the state is expected to proceed along a path of declining carbon intensities.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #21
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Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
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The study traces the pattern of development of the electricity sector in India through a case study of the state of Andhra Pradesh. The main objective of the study is to assess the impact of reforms on the electricity generation industry at the state level. The state is selected as a unit of study to bring out the regional variances that may not be captured at a more aggregate or country level study. The study finds that there has been a steady improvement in the efficiency of generation from coal and gas. However, generation from clean sources like hydro has been declining. This changing generation mix has led to a steady increase in emission intensities. The carbon intensities so obtained is used for construction of a baseline for the state. The study reports an increase in the baseline intensity and explores the causes for such an increase.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #20
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Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
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