Sustainable development
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Most energy forecasts envision a shift to gas in the world energy system over the coming decades. To realize that vision will require tapping increasingly remote gas resources and shipping them to distant gas markets in other countries. Few analysts have explored the robustness of such projections in the real world where political and institutional factors exert strong influences on whether governments and private investors will be able to muster the capital for long-distance pipelines and other infrastructure projects that are essential to a gas vision. Although gas has strong economic, technological and environmental advantages over alternative energy sources, will the difficulty of securing contracts where legal institutions are weak-an attribute of nearly all the nations that are richest in gas resources-impede the outlook for global gas? Which gas resources and transportation infrastructures are likely to be developed? As gas infrastructures interconnect the world, what political consequences may follow? To help answer these questions, this study on the geopolitics of gas combines two tracks of research-one that employs seven historical case studies and another that rests on a quantitative model for projecting alternative futures for gas to 2030.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #35
Authors
Mark H. Hayes
David G. Victor

This meeting will focus on the intersection of two crucial challenges for the organization of energy infrastructures in the developing world. First, for nearly two decades most major developing countries have struggled to introduce market forces in their electric power systems. In every case, that effort has proceeded more slowly than reformers originally hoped; the outcomes have been hybrids that are far from the efficiency and organization of the "ideal" textbook model for a market-based power system. Second, growing concern about global climate change has put the spotlight on the need to build an international regulatory regime that includes strong incentives for key developing countries to control their emissions of greenhouse gases. In most of those countries, the power sector is the largest single source of emissions. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol included mechanisms that would reward developing nations that cut emissions, but so far those systems have functioned far short of their imagined potential. A growing chorus of analysts and policy makers are expressing dissatisfaction with those existing mechanisms and clamoring for alternatives.

This meeting will offer diagnoses of what has gone wrong and what opportunities have nonetheless emerged. It will focus on practical solutions and look at the prospects for different technologies to meet growing demand for power while minimizing the ecological footprint of power generation. It will engage scholars who are studying the industrial organization of the electric power sector (and other infrastructures) in developing countries as well as those who study the effectiveness of international legal regimes. It will engage practitioners, including regulators and energy policy makers. Our aims are not only to focus on new theories that are emerging to explain the organization of the power sector and the design of meaningful international institutions, but also to identify practical implications for investors, regulators, and policy makers.

Presentations will include recent results from the research of Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development. We will present the main findings from a comprehensive study of power market reform in five developing countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa). We will also show the results from a detailed analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions from two key states in India and three provinces in China--a study conducted jointly with the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad. In addition, we will present new conclusions from ongoing work that focuses on strategies for engaging developing countries in the global climate regime. Among the topics considered will be the prospects for accelerating the introduction of natural gas into electric power systems--especially those in China and India where the present domination of coal leads to relatively high emissions.

Oksenberg Conference Room

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This paper was published by Energy Policy in January 2005.

The study examines the dynamics of carbon emissions baselines of electricity

generation in Indian states and Chinese provinces in the backdrop of ongoing electricity sector reforms in these countries. Two Indian states-Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, and three Chinese provinces-Guangdong, Liaoning and Hubei have been chosen for detailed analysis to bring out regional variations that are not captured in aggregate country studies. The study finds that fuel mix is the main driver behind the trends exhibited by the carbon baselines in these five cases. The cases confirm that opportunities exist in the Indian and Chinese electricity sectors to lower carbon intensity mainly in the substitution of other fuels for coal and, to a lesser extent, adoption of more efficient and advanced coal-fired generation technology. Overall, the findings suggest that the electricity sectors in India and China are becoming friendlier to the global environment. Disaggregated analysis, detailed and careful industry analysis is essential to establishing a power sector carbon emissions baseline as a reference for CDM crediting. However, considering all the difficulties associated with the baseline issue, our case studies demonstrate that there is merit in examining alternate approaches that rely on more aggregated baselines.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #34
Authors
Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
Chi Zhang
Thomas C. Heller
David G. Victor
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This paper is part of a larger study on the historical experience of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in countries undergoing transition in their institutions of governance. The study seeks to explain the patterns of investment in IPPs and project outcomes with the aim of using this information to plot alternative future models for IPP investment. This paper follows the research methods and guidelines laid out in the research protocol, "The Experience with Independent Power Projects in Developing Countries: Introduction and Case Study Methods".

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #32
Authors
Joshua C. House
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The electricity industry of China's Guangdong Province has been in a process of reforms since the 1980s. The reforms have so far greatly promoted the industry development, advancing the provincial electric power system to the largest in the country (Zeng, et al., 1999; Zhang, et al. 2001). Achievements notwithstanding, the industry is facing numerous difficulties that challenge both reform policy makers and academics. The province needs high speed capacity expansion and power imports in the foreseeable future to meet the continued demand surge. End-users in Guangdong are paying the highest tariffs in the nation. The technological structure of the existing generation capacity is highly undesirable because large number of tiny generating units and oil-fired capacity are adversely affecting economic and energy efficiencies of electric power supply.

Power generation is causing increasing environmental damages. However, the most challenging is probably the fact that there lacks an adequate mechanism to solve these problems and promote efficient and sustainable growth of the electric power industry. On one hand, reforms in the past twenty years not only have not fundamentally changed the traditional mode of central government planning of provincial electric power supply and development, but also have contributed to the evolving problems of the industry and showed their limitation. On the other hand, utility de-integration and market competition represents an attractive alternative to policy makers, but little is known of the reform roadmap and the potential impact.

This paper examines the utility market reform scenario in Guangdong Province and provides a basic quantitative assessment of the possible impact of the reform policy on electricity tariffs and system development.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #33
Authors
Chi Zhang

Liu Institute for Global Issues
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Hisham Zerriffi is an Assistant Professor and the Ivan Head South/North Research Chair in the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia. Prior to joining the UBC Faculty, Dr. Zerriffi was a Postdoctoral Fellow with the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development. At PESD, he led a new project on the role of institutions in the deployment and diffusion of small-scale energy technologies. The centerpiece of this on-going study is a comparative analysis of different organizational and business models used to provide rural electricity on a local level.

Dr. Zerriffi received his Ph.D. from the Engineering and Public Policy Department at Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation, "Electric Power Systems Under Stress: An Evaluation of Centralized Versus Distributed System Architectures" examined the reliability and economic implications of implementing large-scale distributed energy systems as a way to mitigate the effects of persistent stress on electric power systems. He has a B.A. in Physics (with minors in Political Science and Religion) from Oberlin College, Oberlin, OH and a Masters of Applied Science in Chemistry from McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada. Before joining CMU he was a Senior Scientist at the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research.

This conference was convened by the Energy Research Centre (ERC) at the University of Cape Town and the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) at Stanford University. Held at the University of Cape Town, it took stock of what is known about the impact of modern energy services on the poor. The workshop focused mainly on the South African experience, but within the context of several other studies taking shape in countries such as China and India. It brought together invited experts from academia, government and industry to share research findings and potential future research direction was mapped.

University of Cape Town, South Africa

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Dr. Nadejda Victor
Sr. Associate
Technology & Management Services, Inc.
U.S. Department of Energy
National Energy Technology Laboratory
PO Box 10940, MS 922-178C
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Nadejda Makarova Victor is a Research Fellow at the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University. Her current research efforts focus on the political and economic implications of the shift to natural gas, the role of Russia in world oil and gas markets, and analysis of the different technologies of H2 production, storage and transportation. In addition, Dr. Victor is involved with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) study on Energy and Sustainable Development evaluation. She is also consulting at IIASA, where she focuses on economic development indicators and the long-lasting debate over SRES emissions scenarios.

Previously, Dr. Victor was a Research Associate in the Economics Department at Yale University under Prof. William Nordhaus, where she developed a new spatially referenced economic database. At the same time she was involved in research at the Program for the Human Environment at Rockefeller University. There she analyzed the technical changes bearing on the environment, rates and patterns of technical change in the information and computer industries, and R&D in the energy sector.

Before she moved to the U.S. in 1998, Dr. Victor was a Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria. Her IIASA research included analysis of the long-term development of economic & energy systems, energy modeling at regional and global scales, scenarios of infrastructure financing, trade in energy carriers and environmental impacts. She had extensive collaboration with international organizations, including the World Energy Council (WEC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). She holds a Ph.D. and a B.A. in Economics from Moscow State University.

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