Electricity
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The Greenfield IPP (GRIPP) database is derived from the World Bank's Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) database. This paper presents the definitions used by the World Bank and the procedures that we used to in order to make the PPI database reflect on greenfield electricity projects. The primary motivation for this work was to extract foreign participation in greenfield IPPs for the purposes of a larger study.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #16
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The electricity sector is a major contributor to air and water pollution. Electricity also supplies vital services to modern societies-it literally powers economic growth. Given these vital roles, societies have constructed a "social contract" with the electric power industry. They have adopted a wide array of rules to regulate environmental externalities, mandated connections to low-income households, created "lifeline" tariffs and cross-subsidies to ensure that users gain at least a minimum quantity of electric service at little cost, and adopted various schemes to encourage investment in long-term innovation of improved technologies and electric power systems. It appears to have been relatively easy for governments to craft this social contract over the last century, as the electric power system has evolved, because governments have directly regulated the industry and, in most cases, major electric power firms were state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Today, a new wave of industrial organization is spreading across the industry- one predicated on use of markets rather than direct control-and alarm bells are sounding for the fate of the social contract. This paper examines the alarm.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #15
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Thomas C. Heller
Henri Tjiong
David G. Victor
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This paper presents the details and results of an energy model of a non-electrified rural village. The model itself was developed with MARKAL/TIMES, a modeling and optimization tool. Much of the data used in the model is based on data obtained from surveys and electricity loggers, while some is based on the authors' own assumptions (e.g. the number of households in the village).

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #11
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About 2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass, mainly for cooking and heating (IEA, 2002). Essentially all of those users of traditional fuels reside in developing countries, and most of them live in rural areas; low incomes and the lack of access to alternative, modern fuels explain their choice of traditional energy supply. By the late 1990s, IEA (1998) estimated that biomass accounted for approximately 14 percent of final energy consumption, roughly on par with electricity (14 percent). It is likely that the fraction of total energy supplied by biomass will decline in the future as traditional energy carriers are supplanted by the modern movers such as electricity. This paper provides an overview of that "energy transition" from traditional to commercial fuels from the perspective of available macro-economic data. Based on the long time series data available for the United States it suggests some basic patterns in the energy transition, and it examines the transition under way in several major developing countries. It offers a simple regression model of the transition and suggests topics for further research, including an improved regression model.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #10
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David G. Victor
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This paper is a working draft intended to both set the stage and stimulate discussion at the upcoming EPRI workshop on Global Electrification. The workshop is part of a larger EPRI initiative entitled the "Electricity Technology Roadmap," which explores how electricity can better serve a global society undergoing different stages of economic development. The horizon for the Roadmap, and therefore the workshop, is nominally 50 years out, when global population will probably approach 9 billion people.

The paper looks at the role of energy in the lives of the poorest people in the world, and the changing pattern of energy use as economic development ensues. The data record in this regard is incomplete and often conflicting, although broad trends are discernable. The author approaches the analysis from the bottom up and the top down, using existing micro-level studies of energy use in the home, and macro-level studies of the coupling between energy use, the increasing electrification of energy, and economic development.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #7
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David G. Victor

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Research Fellow
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Mark H. Hayes was recently a Research Fellow with the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD). He lead PESD's research on global natural gas markets, including studies of the growing trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the future for gas demand growth in China.

Dr. Hayes has developed models to analyze the impact of growing LNG imports on U.S. and European gas markets with special attention to seasonality and the opportunity for arbitrage using LNG ships and regasification capacity. From 2002 to 2005, Dr. Hayes managed the Geopolitics of Natural Gas Project, a study of critical political and financial factors affecting investment in cross-border gas trade projects. The study culminated in an edited book volume published by Cambridge University Press.

Prior to coming to Stanford, Mark worked as a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York City. He was a member of the Global Power and Utilities Group, where he was involved in mergers and acquisitions, financing and corporate restructuring.

In 2006 he completed his Ph.D. in the Interdisciplinary Program on Environment and Resources at Stanford University. After completing his Ph.D. at Stanford, Mark has taken a position at RREEF Infrastructure Investments, San Francisco, CA. Mark also has a B.A. in Geology from Colgate University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford. From 1999 to 2002 he served on the Board of Trustees of Colgate University.

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