PESD Associate Director Mark Thurber and Research Associate Joseph Chang wrote "The Policy Tightrope in Gas-Producing Countries: Stimulating Domestic Demand Without Discouraging Supply" that helped frame the discussion at the 2011 Pacific Energy Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia. The study explores and assesses the policy options that gas-rich governments can use to develop domestic gas markets, with a focus on major Asian gas-producing countries.

Gang He joins others at the Aspen Environment Forum 2011 May 30 - June 2, 2011, in Aspen, Colorado. The Aspen Environment Forum Scholars Program provides opportunities for diverse, accomplished leaders in the field to attend the Aspen Environment Forum. Scholars are selected on the basis of their experience, achievements, and interest in energy and the environment, as well as their commitment and contributions to the field. Gang He's research focus has been on China's energy and climate policy, energy economics and energy modeling, renewable energy, and cleaner utilization of coal.

At the Pacific Energy Summit 2011 in Jakarta, PESD associate director Mark C. Thurber talked about how Asian countries can strike the right balance of encouraging domestic gas demand without deterring new supply. Thurber also moderated sessions on the design of natural gas markets in Asia and the role of gas in Indonesia’s economic growth in particular.

PESD Director Frank Wolak will be participating in the Uptime Institute Symposium 2011 from May 9-12, 2011. Wolak will be among a few panelists on "The Future of Energy" session to discuss key issues in electricity markets and electricity delivery that data center operators may need to understand and prepare for over the next 2-5 years.

PESD researcher Richard K. Morse was invited by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to present PESD analysis of possible US west coast coal exports into the international market.  Morse argued that significant exports from the Powder River Basin area could reach international markets in the coming years, and demonstrated how that would impact the international coal trade in Asia.  Morse's insights will be used to help craft the IEA's 2011 World Energy Outlook, which will focus on coal markets.

The IEA convened a meeting of international coal experts to help guide the research for its flagship publication, the World Energy Outlook, which will focus on coal in 2011.  Morse contributed insights from PESD coal research to the global audience of energy executives, researchers, and policy makers.

Platts Coal Trader International
Vol. 11, Issue 67, Pages 5-6

Australia faces serious challenges over the next 20 years in maintaining its hard-won place as a leading coal exporting country and capturing new market share, according to a research paper published by Stanford University's Program on Energy and Sustainable Development April 5.

Following earlier papers on China, Indonesia and South Africa's coal industries, the latest PESD paper, entitled Australia's Black Coal Industry: Past Achievements and Future Challenges, has been written by coal industry expert Bart Lucarelli.

The paper sketches the development of Australia's export coal industry, from its shaky start in the aftermath of the Second World War amid a glut of cheap oil, to the "phenomenal success story" of today.  The renaissance of Australia's coal industry was assisted by the discovery of vast deposits of high-quality coking coal and thermal coal in Queensland's Bowen Basin and the

Hunter Valley of New South Wales respectively, along with new mining technologies and the economic expansions of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, Lucarelli said.

During the Australian coal industry's competitive phase - 1987 to 2003 - export coal prices were relatively stable, but the growth rate of Australia's coal industry slowed as Indonesia became a significant coal exporter.  Since 2003, Australia's coal industry has been in a "volatile price phase," as export coking and thermal coal prices have soared to record highs with the entry of China and latterly India into the international seaborne market, while weather events have affected supplies from coal exporting countries.

Looking to the next 20 years, Lucarelli forecasts serious challenges to the preeminence of Australia's export coal industry in the shape of infrastructure constraints, regulatory risks and under-investment in railways and ports by government-owned companies.  "The most pressing and immediate technical challenge to the black coal industry of Australia is the shortage of rail and port infrastructure to support its further growth," said Lucarelli in the research paper.

‘Chronic infrastructure shortages' Governments in Queensland and New South Wales have proposed projects for expanding their rail and port networks to support a significant increase in Australian coal exports, which are forecast to grow to 540 million mt by 2020 from 240 million mt in 2010.  "Part of the reason that chronic infrastructure shortages are likely to persist has to do with the type of technology being implemented - large rail and fixed land port systems," Lucarelli explained.  Large port and rail projects are required for economies of scale, but involve long lead times, high upfront costs and complex regulatory clearances. 

"A second reason for the chronic shortage of infrastructure has been the reliance on state-owned entities to make the necessary investments in the rail and port systems," Lucarelli said. Government-owned rail and port companies tend to be less nimble and entrepreneurial in their decision-making than the private sector, though some port and rail companies have been privatized recently - most notably Queenslandbased rail company QR National and the port of Brisbane.  Regulatory uncertainty stemming from the Australian government's stop-start policy on curbing carbon emissions and its proposed Mineral Resource Rent Tax on coal-mining profits are additional factors clouding the expansion of Australia's coal industry.  "Potential coal mining projects most at risk due to regulatory uncertainty are the massive new steam coal projects planned for the Galilee, Gunnedah and Surat basins," Lucarelli said.  Illustrating the potential for expansion within Australia's coal industry, Lucarelli said that if only two of the advancedstage projects in the Surat Basin in Queensland started production on schedule, they could add 110 million mt/year of thermal coal exports by 2015.  This is almost as much thermal coal as Australia exported for the whole of 2008, at 115 million mt. 

 

Gang He traveled to Singapore this past month to present for the Energy Studies Institute (ESI) at the National University of Singapore's conference on "Policy Responses to Climate Change and Energy Security Post-Cancun: Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region's Energy Security".  The conference examined policy responses post-Copenhagen with a focus on the Asia-Pacific Region - the world's largest energy consumer.

Among participants from around the world, Gang He presented on the dynamics between energy security and climate change in China.  In addition, PESD Working Paper #88 was featured in the conference and included in ESI Bulletin on energy trends and development.