Energy

This image is having trouble loading!FSI researchers examine the role of energy sources from regulatory, economic and societal angles. The Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) investigates how the production and consumption of energy affect human welfare and environmental quality. Professors assess natural gas and coal markets, as well as the smart energy grid and how to create effective climate policy in an imperfect world. This includes how state-owned enterprises – like oil companies – affect energy markets around the world. Regulatory barriers are examined for understanding obstacles to lowering carbon in energy services. Realistic cap and trade policies in California are studied, as is the creation of a giant coal market in China.

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The price of a barrel of oil has more than doubled in the past year and a half, from $60 in early 2007 to a high of $142 earlier this summer. This has led to a search for someone to blame for this price increase and for government policies to reduce oil prices.

The actions of energy traders, more pejoratively known as speculators, are being targeted by Ralph Nader, the chief executives of the major domestic airlines and many members of Congress as a major cause of this price increase. However, data from world oil market demonstrates that it is unlikely that speculators have had a noticeable impact on world oil prices.

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Commentary
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San Jose Mercury News
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
News Type
News
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Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, global demand for coal has experienced a significant drop - and air quality has improved accordingly. In a virtual seminar moderated by Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) Director Frank Wolak, PESD Associate Director Mark Thurber offered his assessment on whether the reduced role of coal and other fossil fuels is likely to be permanent, or whether they will emerge stronger than ever when the pandemic is over. Recorded talk

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To maximize environmental benefits from the rollout of its cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gas emissions, California should focus on achieving a positive demonstration effect from the program by doing as little as possible to harm the state's economy, as transparently as possible and as fast as possible.

 

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Commentary
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Sacramento Bee
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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Unconventional natural gas and the technologies developed to extract it in the U.S. point to a possible lower carbon energy future for China that can be facilitated through international cooperation between them, improving China's reliance on domestically produced coal, and creating economic and environmental benefits for both countries as well as the rest of the world.

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Journal Articles
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Boao Review
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Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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With the continued successful operation of its greenhouse gas emissions market, California can become a global leader in the design and implementation of regional carbon polices. Moreover, if more regions use the California market as their starting point, then linking these programs together will be more straightforward and the ultimate goal of an effective global climate policy the more likely end result.

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Commentary
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San Jose Mercury News
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Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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Last week, Stanford's Board of Trustees announced that the university would not directly invest funds from its endowment in coal mining companies.  Even the strongest advocates of this action acknowledge that it is a symbolic gesture with little direct effect on the coal industry or global greenhouse gas emissions.  But if a university administration wants to take symbolic (or real) action on climate change, is coal investment a wise choice?

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Commentary
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Los Angeles Times, Op-Ed
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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From 1996 to 2006, China’s oil consumption growth far exceeded that of all major consuming countries. China’s average growth in oil consumption over the time period 2000 to 2006 was estimated to be approximately 8 percent per year, up from 6 percent per year from 1996 to 2000. One factor alleged to have caused this rapid increase in the growth of oil consumption in China is the under-pricing of oil to domestic consumers--selling oil-derived products such as gasoline and diesel fuel domestically at prices that are less than the world oil price plus the cost of producing that product. We explore validity of this claim, quantify the extent to which oil domestic oil consumption is subsidized by the Chinese government, and assess the impact of these subsidies on China’s demand for oil. We find economically significant evidence of under-pricing of gasoline and diesel fuel by China relative to the US over our sample period of January 2005 to July 2008 for all of the approaches to computing the comparable price of these products for the two countries. We estimate that underpricing of oil in the form of gasoline and diesel fuel in China resulted in a total subsidy to Chinese consumers of between 5 and 15 billion dollars in 2007. We also analyze the likely change in the consumption of gasoline and diesel in 2007 that would result from the elimination of this underpricing and find that it had little impact on gasoline and diesel fuel consumption for short-run own-price elasticities in the range of recent estimates of these magnitudes from cross country studies.

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Working Papers
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Xu Tan
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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Virtual Seminar via Zoom
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Welcome Remarks: Mike McFaul, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies, Department of Political Science; Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution; Director, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

Moderator: Frank Wolak, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies; Holbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies in the Department of Economics; Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development

Speaker: Mark Thurber, Research Scholar and Associate Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development; Lecturer in Management, Stanford Graduate School of Business

As of 2018, coal supplied 27% of primary energy and 38% of electricity worldwide. Coal provides millions of jobs and helps fuel economic growth in emerging economies, especially in Asia. It is also responsible for around a million deaths per year from air pollution, and it is a major contributor to global climate change. As economies around the world have screeched to a halt because of COVID-19, coal has taken a hit—and air quality has improved accordingly. Global coal demand dropped 8% in the first quarter of 2020 relative to the same period last year, mainly due to the pandemic’s impact on China, which is far and away the world’s largest consumer of coal. Because of the curtailment of transportation around the world, oil markets are now seeing even more dramatic impacts than coal markets. Dr. Thurber draws on findings of his new book Coal (2019)—and previous edited volumes The Global Coal Market (2015) and Oil and Governance (2012)—to assess whether the reduction in the role of coal and other fossil fuels is likely to be permanent, or whether they will emerge stronger than ever when the pandemic is over.

Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
616 Jane Stanford Way
Encina Hall East, Rm E412
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 724-9709 (650) 724-1717
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PhD

Mark C. Thurber is Associate Director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD) at Stanford University, where he studies and teaches about energy and environmental markets and policy. Dr. Thurber has written and edited books and articles on topics including global fossil fuel markets, climate policy, integration of renewable energy into electricity markets, and provision of energy services to low-income populations.

Dr. Thurber co-edited and contributed to Oil and Governance: State-owned Enterprises and the World Energy Supply  (Cambridge University Press, 2012) and The Global Coal Market: Supplying the Major Fuel for Emerging Economies (Cambridge University Press, 2015). He is the author of Coal (Polity Press, 2019) about why coal has thus far remained the preeminent fuel for electricity generation around the world despite its negative impacts on local air quality and the global climate.

Dr. Thurber teaches a course on energy markets and policy at Stanford, in which he runs a game-based simulation of electricity, carbon, and renewable energy markets. With Dr. Frank Wolak, he also conducts game-based workshops for policymakers and regulators. These workshops explore timely policy topics including how to ensure resource adequacy in a world with very high shares of renewable energy generation.

Dr. Thurber has previous experience working in high-tech industry. From 2003-2005, he was an engineering manager at a plant in Guadalajara, México that manufactured hard disk drive heads. He holds a Ph.D. from Stanford University and a B.S.E. from Princeton University.

Associate Director for Research at PESD
Social Science Research Scholar
Mark Thurber Associate Director Speaker Program on Energy and Sustainable Development

Stanford University
Economics Department
579 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6072

(650) 724-1712 (650) 724-1717
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Holbrook Working Professor of Commodity Price Studies in Economics
Senior Fellow, by courtesy, at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
frank_wolak_033.jpg
MS, PhD

Frank A. Wolak is a Professor in the Department of Economics at Stanford University. His fields of specialization are Industrial Organization and Econometric Theory. His recent work studies methods for introducing competition into infrastructure industries -- telecommunications, electricity, water delivery and postal delivery services -- and on assessing the impacts of these competition policies on consumer and producer welfare. He is the Chairman of the Market Surveillance Committee of the California Independent System Operator for electricity supply industry in California. He is a visiting scholar at University of California Energy Institute and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Professor Wolak received his Ph.D. and M.S. from Harvard University and his B.A. from Rice University.

Director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Frank Wolak Director Moderator Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Seminars
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A spatial equilibrium model of the world coal market is developed that accounts for coal to natural gas switching in the electricity sector in the United States and Europe, the potential for China to exercise monoposony power in its coal purchasing behavior, and the impact of increasing the western US coal export port capacity. The global coal market equilibrium is computed as the solution to a nonlinear complementarity problem. Where possible parameters of the model are estimated econometrically. Where this is not possible the parameters are calibrated to global coal market outcomes in 2011. The model is used to assess how the shale gas boom in the United States impacts global coal market outcomes for dierent models of Chinese coal buyers' purchasing behavior and dierent scenarios for the capacity of coal export terminals on the US west coast.  Although reductions in US and European natural gas prices reduce coal consumption in the US and Europe, the percentage reduction in coal consumption in Europe is much less than that in the US. Increasing US west coast port capacity increases coal exports from the western US and reduces Chinese coal production. US coal prices increase which causes more coal to natural gas switching in the US, further reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Modeling China as a monopsony buyer of coal reduces the absolute magnitude of these impacts.

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Publication Type
Working Papers
Publication Date
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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development
Authors
Frank Wolak
Frank Wolak
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