International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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Russia's Gazprom is among the largest companies in the world, and by far the world's largest producer of natural gas, with close to a 20% share. Driven by its political masters, it continues to consolidate control over Russia's vast oil and (especially) gas resources, and many Western observers are worried by its international expansion into downstream assets. In a new study of the energy giant, Nadejda Victor details the ways in which Gazprom's actions are distorted by political demands and by the inefficiency of the Russian economy, suggesting that it is headed for a production crisis if business and investment considerations don't start to take a higher priority.
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This study, which is part of a larger research project on state-controlled hydrocarbon resources, looks at the strategy, evolution and performance of Gazprom, Russia's largest state company. It explores the critical role that Gazprom plays in the Russian economy, as well as its growing and evolving role as an instrument of state.

Section 1 provides an overview of the Russian oil and gas sectors, with special attention to the history of gas as a Soviet ministry's the period when nearly all of Gazprom's legacy assets in gas fields and pipelines were developed.

Section II focuses on Gazprom as an organization, including its structure, revenues, and its activities within Russia, Western Europe and overseas. As the study makes clear, Gazprom is far more than the world's largest gas company. It is a monopoly controlled by the Kremlin, serving both economic and political agendas, as well as a multidimensional investment enterprise seeking a larger role on the world stage.

Section III looks at the "yin and yang" of Gazprom and the state, and the reasons for early privatization efforts following the demise of the Soviet Union, as well as the current "re-nationalization" of the oil and gas sectors as world prices have risen.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #71
Authors
Nadejda M. Victor
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The developing LNG trade does not have symmetric participants. LNG buyers in continental European and Japan tend to be monopoly gas and electricity companies with incentive and financial ability to sign long-term contracts. In contrast, prospective LNG buyers in the US and the UK participate in competitive wholesale markets and regulatory oversight with disincentives for volume commitments. As a result, integrated LNG sellers use US and UK as "markets of last resort" with implications for variability in actual LNG deliveries and for the division of rents in the growing LNG trade.

This text is a working paper version of Chapter 5 in Mark Hayes' doctoral dissertation to be published in 2007 by Stanford University Press.

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Stanford
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Mark H. Hayes
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Growing LNG imports will impact the value of gas storage and regional price spreads. In this chapter the author describes a model that incorporates seasonal gas demand, and relevant supply chain costs that will drive month-scale LNG flows. This text is a working paper version of Chapter 3 in Mark Hayes' doctoral dissertation to be published in 2007 by Stanford University Press.

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Stanford
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Mark H. Hayes
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Random (stochastic) variability in gas demand and prices creates significant option value for LNG suppliers with destination flexibility. In this chapter the author describes an analytical model to value the option of cargo diversion and to draw insights about the potential for future regional price convergence. This text is a working paper version of Chapter 4 in Mark Hayes' doctoral dissertation to be published in 2007 by Stanford University Press.

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Stanford
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Mark H. Hayes
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Since 2002, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has dramatically reshaped the national oil company, PDVSA, to align it with his goals. PESD researcher David Hults probes current-day PDVSA through three lenses: as a large and growing source of government income, as an instrument of state objectives, and on the merits of its business plan.
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Seeking to electrify the world as a charity venture is counterproductive, argues PESD affiliate faculty Hisham Zerriffi. What's needed is close attention to which electrification business models actually yield sustainable results, a question Zerriffi tackles in detail through case studies of Brazil, Cambodia, and China.
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Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), the national oil company (NOC) of Venezuela, is a major energy producer. Vertically integrated, the company conducts large-scale domestic exploration and production activities in both oil and natural gas, operates domestic and international refining facilities, and sells gasoline products to consumers both at home and abroad.

The Venezuelan government has relied on PDVSA to fund and implement a heavily interventionist strategy with several aims. The influx of large hydrocarbon revenues has funded Venezuelan government projects to improve social conditions, particularly for the poor. These revenues have also enabled the government to cement patronage networks and nationalize those economic sectors that might otherwise threaten its rule.

This study provides a descriptive account of how the company operates under the considerable mandates of the Venezuelan state including a brief history of PDVSA, chronicling its development from nationalization, a snapshot of PDVSA as a company today, describing its production, refining, and other operations. Following these preliminaries, the study concentrates on PDVSA's framework today, suggesting three models: PDVSA as a government revenue-provider, implementer of political objectives, and viable business. The paper also outlines PDVSA's role as an important revenuecollecting actor for the Venezuelan government and how PDVSA has become an implementing agent for the state, delivering revenues to government-selected beneficiaries and making business decisions in support of government objectives. Finally, the paper addresses PDVSA as a business.

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Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Working Paper #70
Authors
David Hults

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Research Associate

Ngai-Chi Chung manages PESD's efforts on investigating the developing industry of carbon storage. His focus is on investigating the commercial viability of carbon storage projects and the business models, and the management of financial and regulatory risks behind the carbon storage projects.

Ngai-Chi Chung joined PESD in October 2007. He has a B.S. with distinction in Civil Engineering and a M.S. in Management Science and Engineering from Stanford University. He has worked as an Associate Consultant for Marakon Associates, with client experience including a major U.S. automotive manufacturer and a major European energy utility.

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