Stanford University

Energy for Sustainable Development

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The majority of rural residents in China are dependent on traditional fuels, but the quality and quantity of existing data on the process of fuel switching in rural China are insufficient to have a clear picture of current conditions and a well-grounded outlook for the future.

Based on an analysis of a rural household survey data in Hubei province in 2004, we explore patterns of residential fuel use within the conceptual framework of
fuel switching using statistical approaches. Cross-sectional data show that the transition from biomass to modern commercial sources is still at an early stage, incomes may have to rise substantially in order for absolute biomass use to fall, and residential fuel use varies tremendously across geographic regions due to disparities in availability of different energy sources. Regression analysis using logit and tobit models suggest that income, fuel prices, demographic characteristics, and topography have significant effects on fuel switching.

Moreover, while switching is occurring, the commercial energy source which appears to be the principal substitute for biomass in rural households is coal. Given that burning coal in the household is a major contributor to general air pollution in China and to negative health outcomes due to indoor air pollution, further transition to modern and clean fuels such as biogas, LPG, natural gas and electricity is important. Further income growth induced by New Countryside Construction and improvement of modern and clean energy accessibility will play a critical role in the switching process.

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The Journal of the International Energy Initiative; Elsevier
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Hisham Zerriffi

New PESD Working Paper explains China's dramatic surge in coal imports and its major impact on global coal markets

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PESD researchers Morse and He devise a model that explains Chinese coal import patterns and that can allow the coal market to understand, and to some degree predict, China's coal import behavior in PESD Working Paper #94 - "The World's Greatest Coal Arbitrage: China's Coal Import Behavior and Implications for the Global Coal Market."
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The China Factor: Short and Long-term Drivers of Chinese Coal Imports

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In 2009 China, the world's largest coal producer, in seemingly a counterintuitive shift, became the world's largest coal importer at the same time.  The resulting realignment of the global coal trade has altered global prices for coal and power, and may be the harbinger of an "Asian coal decade" to come. 

Drawing on their recent presentation at Coaltrans Asia 2010, PESD researchers Gang He and Richard Morse examine the recent trend of soaring Chinese coal imports, and offer a theory of what will drive this long term coal import/export balance between China and the world in the next 10 years.  He and Morse argue that China's voracious appetite for imported coal is largely profit driven and takes advantage of key arbitrage relationships in the global market.  But those relationships are in turn largely a function of key political economy issues in China's domestic energy markets. 

Major coal and power sector reforms,  such as coal sector consolidation and coal-power integration, will impact domestic coal prices and therefore will largely drive China's import trends going forward.  Thus China's shift to imports is not a paradigm shift in global markets, but rather a harbinger of greater trade volatility in the future.

Gang He

616 Serra St.
E420 Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-4249 (650) 724-1717
0
Research Associate
Gang.jpg

Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

Gang He Speaker
Richard Morse Speaker
Seminars

PESD releases Dr. Bart Lucarelli's cutting edge analysis of one of the world's fastest growing and most important coal markets

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Abstract

Over the past two decades, Indonesia's coal industry has transformed itself from being an unknown, minor player in Asia's coal markets to the world's largest exporter of steam coal. In what is likely the most detailed analysis of the Indonesian coal industry ever released, Dr. Bart Lucarelli tells the story of how Indonesia created this world-scale industry over two decades despite challenges created by widespread government corruption, a weak legal system, the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, and the fall of the Soeharto government in 1998.

The paper argues that key physical and technical factors, along with regulatory and political factors, have acted as the primary drivers of the industry's phenomenal growth over the past two decades and will be the most important factors for consideration over the next two decades.  It also discusses current estimates of Indonesia's coal resources and reserves, the role played by location and geological factors in the development of its coal resources, the future impacts of the passage of Indonesia's Mining Law of 2009 and its related implementing regulations, and how these issues might affect the coal industry's structure and performance before 2020.

 

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Coal ship in Newcastle scenery
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Research Experience in Carbon Sequestration 2010

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Download ppt

Student Union Building
Acoma A&B Rooms
University of New Mexico
Albuquerque, NM 87131

Gang He

616 Serra St.
E420 Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 725-4249 (650) 724-1717
0
Research Associate
Gang.jpg

Gang He's work focuses on China's energy and climate change policy, carbon capture and sequestration, domestic coal and power sectors and their key role in both the global coal market and in international climate policy framework.  He also studies other issues related to energy economics and modeling, global climate change and the development of lower-carbon energy sources. 

Prior to joining PESD, he was with the World Resources Institute as a Cynthia Helms Fellow.  He has also worked for the Global Roundtable on Climate Change of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. With his experiences both in US and China, he has been actively involved in the US-China collaboration on energy and climate change. 

Mr. He received an M.A. from Columbia University on Climate and Society, B.S. from Peking University on Geography, and he is currently doing a PhD in the Energy and Resources Group at UC Berkeley.

Gang He Speaker
Workshops

Energy Working Group Talk: Suzi Kerr on Designing More Effective International Policy to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation

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Effectively addressing emissions from deforestation will require both an international policy - to address the global nature of the climate problem, and domestic policies - to effectively respond to the international policies and take unilateral action; Suzi will be focusing on the former. 

The key challenges in reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) policy are monitoring, permanence, and additionality - leakage and adverse selection as well as the risks involved if REDD is linked explicitly to international carbon markets.  They propose an international system based on national baselines, temporary rewards for protection and externally replicable monitoring and illustrate the potential outcomes in terms of  additional carbon storage, the cost of emissions reductions, and transfers of resources between countries.  Suzi will also briefly discuss how national governments might respond to an international policy of this type. 

 

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Suzi Kerr graduated from Harvard University in 1995 with a PhD in Economics. Following that she was an Assistant Professor at the University of Maryland - College Park from 1995 through 1998. From 1999 to 2009 Kerr co-founded and was Director of Motu. She has been a visiting scholar at Resources for the Future (USA), Victoria University, and, from Jan - August 2001, in the Joint Center for the Science and Policy of Global Change at MIT.

Suzi Kerr is a Visiting Professor in the Economics Department at Stanford University and a Senior Research Associate in Stanford's Program in Energy and Sustainable Development.  She is also a Senior Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research in New Zealand. 

Stanford University

Suzi Kerr Visiting Professor Speaker
Seminars

7th Nomura Asia Equity Forum

PESD research fellow Jeremy Carl will be guest speaking at the 7th Nomura Asia Equity Forum on climate policy in China and India and its effects on the global energy market.

Program highlights

  • Main plenary sessions with Keynote, guest & government speakers, panel discussion and corporate presentations
  • Country Focus: China, India, ASEAN, Japan, Europe
  • Sector Focus: Financials, Property, Infrastructure, Alternative Energy & Climate Change, Healthcare, Oil & Gas and more
  • Featuring over 160 Asian and Japanese leading corporates in 1on1 / small group meetings with senior management
  • Access to leading industry analysts, strategists and economists from Nomura
  • Social events to network and enhance mindshare

Marina Bay Sands Resort & Casino, Singapore

Jeremy Carl

616 Serra St.
Encina Hall E415
Stanford, CA 94305

(650) 723-2136 (650) 724-1717
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Jeremy_Carl_June_2011.jpg

Jeremy Carl is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution whose work focuses on energy and environmental policy, with particular emphasis on energy security, climate policy, and global fossil fuel markets. In addition, he writes extensively on US-India relations and Indian politics.

Before coming to Stanford, he was a  research fellow in resource and development economics at the Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India’s leading energy and environmental policy organization.

He is the editor of Conversations about Energy: How the Experts See America’s Energy Choices, and his work has appeared in numerous publications including the Journal of Energy Security, Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century, Natural Resources and Sustainable Development, and Papers on International Environmental Negotiation.

In addition to his work on energy, the environment, and India, Jeremy has written about a variety of other issues related to U.S. politics and public policy; Jeremy’s work has been featured in and cited by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, San Francisco Chronicle, Newsweek, South China Morning Post, Indian Express, and many other leading newspapers and magazines. He has advised and assisted numerous groups including the World Bank, the United Nations, and the staff of the U.S. Congress.

Jeremy received a BA with distinction from Yale University. He holds an MPA from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and did doctoral work at Stanford University, where he was a Packard Foundation Stanford Graduate Fellow.

Research Fellow
Jeremy Carl Speaker
Workshops
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